Why Nick Bostrom got it wrong
Nick Bostrom (centre) and colleagues at the Future of Humanity Institute Critiquing Nick Bostrum’s thinking feels a little bit like checking Einstein’s sums. Bostrum’s an AI rockstar; his homepage carries recommendations from the likes of Bill Gates; I have heard nothing but praise for his work from people whose opinions I deeply respect; and I love the fact that (in homage to Alan Turing’s seminal paper ?) he used a Disney movie as inspiration for a his career-defining AI hypothesis . So how come his latest working paper, The Vulnerable World Hypothesis , gets so much wrong? I have a hunch I know why . But first let’s look at what . The urn theory Let’s start with Bostrom’s definition of our vulnerability: One way of looking at human creativity is as a process of pulling balls out of a giant urn. The balls represent possible ideas, discoveries, technological inventions. Over the course of history, we have extracted a great many balls—mo...